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Deutsche: Riots Will Roll Back Some Economic Gains; SARB May Hike Rates in November

SOUTH AFRICA
  • Recent devastation from violence, riots and looting in South Africa came at a time when the economic recovery and reform adjustments had begun to gain traction
  • While the situation had calmed down significantly, the full brunt of the costs to growth and the knock-on effect to fiscal will be assessed in the coming weeks
  • Early estimates pointed to the likelihood of 0.8% shaved from growth this year (from 4.8%), with a possible hit to the budget balance of some 0.2%-0.5% of GDP
  • 2022 outlook might actually be skewed higher (currently 2.8%) by infrastructure rebuilding; inventory accumulation efforts, in conjunction with higher COVID-19 vaccinations and commodity price trickle-down effects.
  • Given the supply shock ramifications to food prices, which should be short-lived, Deutsche Bank didn't think the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will respond with a hike in July as many forecasted. A rate hike, however, remained a possibility this year in November.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
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MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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