Dip in EURHUF from Tuesday’s Cycle High Now Close to 1%

The uptick in EURHUF following fresh concerns over central bank independence proved to be short-lived, with the cross now 0.3% lower on the day and downside momentum seen accelerating through the 393.00 handle. EURHUF is close to 1% below Tuesday’s multi-month high of 396.25, though initial support lies some way off at 390.38, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average is needed to signal a reversal of the current bullish theme.

• In a recently published Reuters poll, analysts adjusted expectations for the one-year ahead EURHUF rate to 390 from 384.22 in the February poll.
• While this morning’s industrial production figures added to signals suggestive of weak momentum behind the economy’s recovery, the forint had no reaction. CPI data on Friday will be more closely watched, where the headline figure is estimated to have edged slightly higher – from +3.8% y/y in January to +3.9% in February.
• Today, attention will turn to Fed Chair Powell’s testimony as the key global risk event. The ECB rate decision will take focus tomorrow, with US NFPs crossing Friday afternoon.