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DNB: Norway Rate Hikes to Continue in 2022 and 2023

NORGES BANK
  • We expect the Norges Bank policy rate to be increased by 25bp per quarter in 2022 and 2023.
  • Norges Bank looks set to remove monetary policy stimuli and raise the policy rate above the neutral level. On the other hand, the pace of rate hikes must be assessed against the negative effects for households and unemployment.
  • Our forecasts for the economic trend and marked change in the inflation outlook call for further rate hikes. The low level of unemployment and surveys indicating that private businesses are struggling to find qualified labour suggest that capacity utilisation is higher than normal. Along with core inflation currently in line with the inflation target these are arguments to remove the current monetary policy stimuli.
  • In March, Norges Bank forecast rate hikes of 25bp per quarter in 2022 and 2023. Based on our own forecasts, we find such a rate path most likely. In 2025, we expect inflation to abate and unemployment to have risen, leading to the policy rate being lowered by 50bp in total.
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