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Domestic CPI will be key today

TURKEY
  • Local & USD rates unch this morning, having weakened yesterday on the back of dovish comments from Erdogan and contradictory words from Kavciogu – providing assurances against premature rate cuts. Local bonds bear steepened +8-19bp across the curve, with 10Y yields most offered trading back to 17.95. USD bonds traded mostly flat around the open. W/w the local curve trades bear steeper, with 7-10Y tenors +42-46bp higher. USD curve is also bear steeper w/w, but less acutely offered than locals at +7bp higher in 7-25Y yields.
  • USD/TRY trades slightly higher at the open on the back of some early buying pressure on the USD. The cross failed to hold below 8.60 in yesterday's session, despite broad-based USD weakness and attempts to soothe market expectations after Erdogan hinted at immanent rate cuts. The CBRT's acute credibility deficit means markets will keep pricing in the likelihood of premature cuts, no matter how many assurances Kavcioglu tries to deliver – given Erdogan's track record of replacing or influencing CBRT Governors.
  • Domestic CPI will be key today after the CBRT pointed to a potential peak in April that ran counter to sell side expectations for a rise above 18%. Expectations align with an uptick to 17.25% this month and stickiness in the 17-19% bracket over the coming months – limiting the CBRT's ability to cut without undermining TRY stability and investor confidence. At these levels, TRY weakness will also contribute to greater FX passthrough to inflation. An upside surprise above expectations today would likely weigh negatively on TRY as the CBRT is unlikely/unable to tighten further, while a lower print would ease upside pressure on USD/TRY somewhat. Intraday Sup1: 8.5805, Sup2: 8.5439, Res1: 8.6447, Res2: 8.7492
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