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Dot Plot Suggests 125bp More Hikes In 2022, And Big 2023 / 2024 Dispersion

FED

The 2022 dot plot shows at least another 100bp and, more likely given it's the median, 125bp hikes in Nov and Dec combined. There are 18 dots in 2022 above 4% - in the June edition, there were zero.

  • The 2023 dots are split three ways, 6 each at 4.5%, 4.75%, and 5.0% ( upper end of the target range). On the other hand, plenty of optionality to play a steady path beyond 2022 should the data warrant.
  • The 2024 dots range between 2.75% and 4.75%, with the median (and mode, with 4 dots) at 3.9%.
  • The longer-run dot is unchanged though we did see a dot sneak in at 2.625% (last time there were only 2 dots above 2.5%, now 3), and there are no longer any dots below 2.25%.
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