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Dovish Part Of Statement Was Maintenance Of Copom’s Baseline Scenario: JPMorgan

BRAZIL
  • With a unanimous decision to change the communication, BCB is explicitly trying to increase its degrees of freedom due to heightened local and global uncertainties.
  • The dovish part of the statement was the maintenance of COPOM’s baseline scenario. In spite of strong and arguably surprising (to the COPOM) economic activity growth at the turn of the year and higher-than-expected inflation between December and February, BCB kept the 2024 and 2025 CPI forecasts unchanged at 3.5% and 3.2%, respectively.
  • The rest of the statement had only small modifications. This continuity suggests that the change in the wording does not imply a different view about terminal rates.
  • In this sense, today’s decision and message seemed broadly consistent with JPMorgan’s terminal rate of 9.50% as, beyond the May meeting, they expect two additional cuts, one of 50bp followed by one of 25bp before ending a 425bp cycle.
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