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Dovish Reaction To Almost In Line Report

CANADA DATA
  • 2Y GoC yields have dipped 2.5bps post-CPI for a 4bp decline on the day from Friday’s close.
  • USDCAD has pushed higher to 1.3653 for a ~30 pip increase but only just pokes above overnight highs. Resistance is seen at 1.3660 (20-day EMA)
  • BoC-dated OIS has shifted to ~14bp of cuts for the June meeting
  • At a first glance, headline CPI was at expected at 2.7% Y/Y but the average of the BoC’s preferred median & trim measures were marginally softer than expected in April at 2.75% Y/Y (cons 2.8) owing to a one tenth miss for median with the trim in line.
  • However, it followed an upward revised 3.05% Y/Y (initial 2.95%) in March.
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