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Downside Risk to China Demand in Q4: Goldman Sachs

OIL

China’s estimated oil demand forecast for Q4 faces downside risk of 0.6mb/d following a surge in EV sales and bearish conversations with local consumers according to Goldman Sachs.

  • The Q4 Brent forecast of $81/bbl would decrease by $5/bbl on this hypothetical lower demand in China.
  • Prices are still expected in the $70-90/bbl OPEC range call for Brent with the risks roughly balanced.
  • Downside risks include China’s macro policy and petchem additions limit with upside from more bullish than expected OECD commercial stocks, later unwinding of OPEC production cuts beyond July and geopolitics.
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China’s estimated oil demand forecast for Q4 faces downside risk of 0.6mb/d following a surge in EV sales and bearish conversations with local consumers according to Goldman Sachs.

  • The Q4 Brent forecast of $81/bbl would decrease by $5/bbl on this hypothetical lower demand in China.
  • Prices are still expected in the $70-90/bbl OPEC range call for Brent with the risks roughly balanced.
  • Downside risks include China’s macro policy and petchem additions limit with upside from more bullish than expected OECD commercial stocks, later unwinding of OPEC production cuts beyond July and geopolitics.