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Duda Derails Push For EU Funds, NBP's Tyrowicz Expects +10% Y/Y Inflation At Year-End

POLAND
  • President Andrzej Duda complicated the government's efforts to unlock access to over EUR35bn in EU recovery funds by asking the Constitutional Court to rule on the key judiciary reform passed by parliament. His decision reduces the odds of Poland receiving the first tranches of the funding before the autumn parliamentary election. The Constitutional Court is embroiled in an internal dispute over the expiry of its Chief Justice's term, which is expected to delay the verdict. The Court's decisions are final, i.e. cannot be appealed.
  • NBP hawk Joanna Tyrowicz told TVN24 that she expects consumer inflation to be around +10% Y/Y at the end of the year, adding that the pace of disinflation will likely be "highly unsatisfying." Her forecast contrasts with NBP Governor Glapinski's personal projection of +6% Y/Y, which he revealed at the press conference after the central bank left interest rates unchanged last week. Tyrowicz warned that in her opinion headline inflation will be persistently elevated and will not return to the target until at least 2025.
  • On the radar today we have Poland's current account balance and trade balance (13:00GMT/14:00CET).
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