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Duration Remains Out Of Favour

BONDS

Global curves are steepening as long-end yields continue to hit multi-year highs. No new "news" driving these moves, with continued themes including Fed hawkishness/USD gains/UK macro policy concerns/European energy crisis.

  • European long-end yields are leading the way higher, with UK 30Ys pushing decisively through 5.00% for a fresh post-1998 high amid a 30Y Green Gilt syndication.
  • Meanwhile, new post-2014 highs for Buxl (moving higher above 2%); and 30Y USTs (sit just shy of 3.90%). US 10Y yields trade above 4% for the first time since 2008.
  • Short-end instruments are outperforming. Several ECB speakers weighed in on a 75bp October hike and getting rates to "neutral" by end-year (though Holzmann said 100bp is "currently too much").
  • A heavy Fed speaker slate lies ahead with Powell, Evans, Bowman, Bostic, Bullard and Barkin. 7Y Note supply also eyed.
  • Somewhat overlooked in the morning's tumult were new post-Apr 2020 BTP spread wides vs Bunds (257.9bp).

Latest levels:

  • US: 2-Yr yield down 2.9bps at 4.2541%, 5-Yr up 3.2bps at 4.216%, 10-Yr up 5.8bps at 4.0027%, 30-Yr up 6.6bps at 3.8917%.
  • DE: 2-Yr yield down 0.7bps at 1.976%, 5-Yr up 6.3bps at 2.233%, 10-Yr up 10.9bps at 2.34%, 30-Yr up 12.6bps at 2.218%.
  • UK: 2-Yr yield down 1.7bps at 4.63%, 5-Yr down 2.2bps at 4.677%, 10-Yr up 4.3bps at 4.549%, 30-Yr up 9.6bps at 5.084%.
  • Italy / German 10-Yr spread 2.3bps wider at 254.9bps

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