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Early Analyst Takes On Mixed Labour Report

  • The Canadian labour report was mixed in July as jobs surprisingly fell -31k after -43k (and with a growing darg from full-time), but another decline in the labour force kept the u/e rate at a series low of 4.9%.
  • Early analyst takes:
  • BMO: The job market is clearly losing momentum in a hurry, likely due to both a marked cooling in the broader economy but also because a lack of available workers. The downward drift in the participation rate, especially 15-64yrs, is worth watching closely, with the potential to tighten the labour market further. We look for a 50 bp hike in Sept.
  • RBC: Two months of lower employment indicates the labour market is running up against capacity constraints, with little room for upside movement. In the months ahead we will begin to see the economy lose steam, with Canada not far behind the rise in jobless claims in the US. With the BoC having hiked 225bps (to 2.5%) since March, and at least another 75bps slated for the fall, inflation pressures will ease.

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