MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Early SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Put Condors

US TSYS

With few exceptions, SOFR/Treasury options focused on low delta puts and put structures overnight. Underlying futures currently weaker, paring Monday's rebound after 10Y yield tapped 5.0187% (highest since late Sep'07) in early trade. Projected rate hikes static into early 2024: November holding at 1.6%, w/ implied rate change of +.4bp to 5.333%, December cumulative of 5.7bp at 5.386%, January 2024 cumulative 9.9bp at 5.427%, while March 2024 slips to 5.8bp at 5.386%. Fed terminal at 5.438% in Jan'24. Fed terminal at 5.425% in Feb'24.

  • SOFR Options:
    • 20,000 0QZ3 94.93/95.12/95.25/95.37 put condors ref 95.405 to -.40
    • 7,500 0QZ3 94.87/95.12/95.25/95.37 put condors ref 95.435
    • 3,000 SFRZ3/SFRJ4 94.50 put spds
    • 2,000 SFRH4 94.25/94.43 2x1 put spds ref 94.645
    • 4,000 SFRZ3 94.68/94.87 call spds ref 94.565
    • 3,000 0QZ3 95.50/95.87/96.25 call flys ref 95.435 to -.405
  • Treasury Options:
    • 3,000 USX3 107/109 2x1 put spds
    • over 9,900 TYX3 106.5 puts, 25 last ref 106-12.5
    • 3,000 TYZ 108 calls, 27 last ref 106-14
    • 1,000 TYX3 105.5/106 3x2 put spds ref 106-17.5
    • 1,000 TYX3 105.25/105.75 put spds, 3 ref 106-17.5
    • 1,200 FVZ3 103.5 puts ref 104-22.5
    • 4,750 TYX3 105.5/106 put spds, 7 ref 106-11 to -10.5
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