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Ease in Risk Aversion Keeps Supporting HUF

HUNGARY
  • EURHUF ticks higher this morning after finding support at around 394.50, its LT upward trending support line.
  • A break below that level would open the door for a move down to 392.30 (38.2% Fibo of the 352.40 – 416.90 range).
  • This morning, the NBH decided to leave its 1W depo rate steady at 10.75% (as expected).
  • The ease in risk aversion in recent weeks has been supporting the forint; however, renewed period of uncertainty could lead to new highs on the DXY, leaving the HUF vulnerable in the coming weeks.
  • The chart below shows that EURHUF has strongly co-moved with the DXY index, which could be seen as a proxy of risk aversion, in the past year.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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