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EC Revises CEE GDP Forecasts To The Upside

EMERGING MARKETS
  • In its spring forecasts, the EC reviewed both Poland and Hungary GDP projections to the upside for this year.
  • After contracting by 2.7% in 2020 and a difficult first quarter amid worsening Covid situation, the EC expects Poland GDP to rise by 4% in 2021, up from 3.1% in its winter forecast, and by 5.1% in 2022. The EC believes that Poland's GDP should reach pre-pandemic level in Q3 2021.
  • Hungary GDP is now projected to grow by 5% in 2021, up from 4% in the winter forecast, which is higher than the current government's forecast of 4.3%. The EC then expects Hungary to expand 5.5% in 2022.
  • According to sell-side reviews, Poland and Hungary are expected to contract by 1.5% and 4.2% YoY in Q1.

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