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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessECB and US CPI eagerly awaited with core FI a little soft
Cored fixed income is generally a little softer this morning ahead of the week's key events (the ECB policy decision and US CPI release).
- As we note in the MNI ECB Preview, the baseline scenario will see the ECB reaffirm its commitment to conduct PEPP at a higher pace, but could moderate the language from "significantly higher". Staff macroeconomic projections show a modest uptick in the growth and inflation forecasts, with the latter still below target over the medium term and the risk assessment considered 'balanced'. As recently as a couple of weeks ago the market had started to position for a potential slowdown in purchases but price action over the past few days suggests there has been some decent position squaring ahead of today's meeting.
- In terms of US CPI, April's upside inflation surprise is unlikely to be repeated in the May data due today at 13:30BST/8:30ET, at least on a month-on-month basis. But U.S. CPI is set to grow 0.5% following a 0.8% gain in April, according to the Bloomberg survey. From a year earlier, CPI is forecast to increase 4.7% - the fastest since 2008 (and up from 4.2% in April).
- Gilts are outperforming Bunds and Treasuries this morning after more focus on the Northern Ireland trade debate between the EU and UK (with Biden potentially getting involved at the G7).
- TY1 futures are down -0-3+ today at 132-21 with 10y UST yields up 0.5bp at 1.497% and 2y yields up 0.2bp at 0.158%.
- Bund futures are down -0.13 today at 172.43 with 10y Bund yields up 0.3bp at -0.242% and Schatz yields down -0.1bp at -0.683%.
- Gilt futures are down -0.01 today at 127.92 with 10y yields up 0.1bp at 0.731% and 2y yields up 0.5bp at 0.058%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.