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ECB / BoE Hike Pricing Jumps, With May 25bps Firming

STIR

ECB and BoE hike pricing continues to pick up Tuesday, catching up to US rate weakness following European holidays.

  • Terminal expectations are set to close the day at the highest since prior to the Silicon Valley Bank turmoil (the week ending Mar 10):
  • ECB implied terminal rates are up about 4bp in the past hour and 14bp on the day. Now pricing in 3.65% depo rate in September (ie 65bp of tightening). A 25bp hike in May is over 95% priced.
  • BoE pricing is up 8+bp to a peak Bank Rate of 4.73% in September (just under 50bp of cumulative hikes), with 80% implied prob of a 25bp raise in May.

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