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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
Soft flash November Eurozone inflation data helped tip pricing for ECB cuts in 2024 to well over 100bp on Wednesday, with BoE cut pricing keeping pace.
- Around 107bp of ECB rate reductions are now priced by futures markets for 2024, up 11bp on the day - by comparison, at the start of the week, the ERZ3-ERZ4 spread implied 80bp of reductions (see chart).
- The first 25bp cut is just about cumulatively priced for April 2024 (vs June prior), with 50bp by July and 75bp by the September meeting.
- For the BoE, there is around 100bp of Bank Rate cuts priced in the year following the Feb 2024/Mar 2024 peak - up 9bp on the day.
- The first 25bp cut remains fully priced by Aug 2024 but that's creeping into June (around 85-90% implied cumulatively), with 50bp of reductions through September 2024.
Euribor Dec23-Dec24 Spread Source: BBG, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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