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ECB / BoE Pricing Unusually Flat Ahead Of Rising Event Risk

STIR

A soft ECB bank lending survey and weak German IFO did little to move peak pricing for the ECB and BoE Tuesday (terminal pricing had the smallest change at the close so far in July), with the Fed decision Wednesday and ECB Thursday looming later in the week.

  • ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -0.7bp to 3.94% (44bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). Very little change in Tuesday's session, with a 25bp hike 96% priced at Thursday's meeting.
  • BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing +0.8bp to 5.89% (89bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Feb 2024). There's still just under 50% probability implied for a 50bp hike at the August MPC.

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