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ECB Cut Pricing Respects Recent Ranges Ahead Of Services PMIs

STIR

Euribor futures are -1.0 to +3.5 through the blues.

  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price around 90bps of rate cuts through the remainder of 2024, sticking within the recent range.
  • Rate path pricing has seemingly solidified ahead of Thursday's ECB decision.
  • The Bank is in its pre-meeting quiet period.
  • The release of China's annual economic targets and Japanese CPI had limited impact on core global FI markets during Asia hours.
  • February services PMIs headline today's regional calendar. The readings from France, Germany and the Eurozone are final numbers.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.9030.0
Apr-243.875-2.8
Jun-243.687-21.6
Jul-243.538-36.5
Sep-243.333-57.0
Oct-243.170-73.3
Dec-242.998-90.5
Jan-252.863-104.0
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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Euribor futures are -1.0 to +3.5 through the blues.

  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price around 90bps of rate cuts through the remainder of 2024, sticking within the recent range.
  • Rate path pricing has seemingly solidified ahead of Thursday's ECB decision.
  • The Bank is in its pre-meeting quiet period.
  • The release of China's annual economic targets and Japanese CPI had limited impact on core global FI markets during Asia hours.
  • February services PMIs headline today's regional calendar. The readings from France, Germany and the Eurozone are final numbers.

Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.9030.0
Apr-243.875-2.8
Jun-243.687-21.6
Jul-243.538-36.5
Sep-243.333-57.0
Oct-243.170-73.3
Dec-242.998-90.5
Jan-252.863-104.0
Source: MNI/Bloomberg