ECB-Dated OIS Only Sees Marginal Uptick On Hot UK Labour Market Data

ECB-dated OIS sees only a modest uptick in lieu of the firmer than expected UK labour market data, with participants remaining unwilling to push too far beyond pricing 2x 25bp hikes before the terminal rate of the current tightening cycle is reached (in line with the general train of thought outlined in our latest ECB sources piece.

• That leaves ~55bp of tightening priced into the strip come the end of the ECB’s October meeting, ~1bp above yesterday’s closing levels, with a 25bp hike at this week’s meeting seen as a done deal.
• U.S. CPI data (due today) and tomorrow’s FOMC decision present the key macro risk events ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, when the Bank’s guidance on future policy steps will come under scrutiny.
• Final inflation data out of Germany was in line with the preliminary readings, while the Spanish equivalent saw little in the way of deviation from the initial releases.
• Note that Bank of Spain Governor de Cos will speak at the 45^th anniversary celebrations of the Cinco Días newspaper later today, although the fact that the ECB is in its pre-meeting quiet period should mean that we don’t see any meaningful comments from that event.