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ECB Dec Pricing Converges On 50bp

STIR

Pricing for the December ECB meeting next week dipped just under 2bp Monday to a fresh post-Oct meeting low of 53bp, implying 88% chance of a 50bp as opposed to 75bp hike at the meeting.

  • This came after comments by Governing Council members Makhlouf today and Villeroy Sunday pointing to a likely half-point raise.
  • Terminal ECB rate hike pricing remained buoyed at 2.83-2.84% though, bolstered by solid Italy/Spain PMI data for Nov.
  • BoE pricing for next week was steady at 55bp; terminal for Sept 2023 was up about 5bp at 4.63%.


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