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ECB Eyed, Timely Data and 10Y TIPS

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys ultimately sit with a small bear steepening on the day after fluctuating overnight with the resumption of Nord Stream 1 gas flows back to pre-maintenance levels but still with fears over their reliability. Having moved past the BoJ decision overnight, attention is on the expected first ECB rate hike of the cycle with markets debating a 25/50bp move.
  • 2YY +0.2bps at 3.230%, 5YY +1.0bps at 3.174%, 10YY +1.3bps at 3.040% and 30YY +0.8bps at 3.167% with curves broadly keeping to the week’s ranges with 2s5s at -5bps at 2s10s at -19bps.
  • TYU2 sits 1+ tick lower at 117-23+, off a session low of 117-18 that matched initial support at the Jul 8 low. Further support sits close at 117-12 (50% of Jun 14- Jul 6 rally), beyond which lies key support at 116-11 (Jun 28 low) required to signal scope for a deeper retracement from what is currently viewed as a corrective pullback.
  • Data: Philly Fed mfg for July (0830ET), initial jobless claims for payrolls reference week (0830ET) and leading index for June (1000ET)
  • Bond issuance: US Tsy $17B 10Y TIPS auction re-open (91282CEZ0) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $55B 4W, $50B 8W bill auctions – 1130ET
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