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ECB Hike Pricing Ending Softer Week On Modest High

STIR

ECB terminal depo Rate pricing looks to be closing out the week on a firmer note, +2.4bp on the day to 3.77% (implying 52bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Sept/Oct).

  • This would make it about 5bp clawed back over the past two sessions, vs the sharp drop earlier in the week on softer-than-expected eurozone national inflation prints on balance. That would pare the drop in peak rates on the week to 8bp from 15bp as of Wednesday's close.
  • A June hike remains strongly priced (96% probability).
  • The mixed US payrolls data hasn't really had much impact on ECB hike pricing, which has ticked steadily higher through the day.
  • There's been little in the way of impactful ECB commentary, while the main post-market risk event is this evening’s potential sovereign rating update from S&P on France (current rating: AA; Outlook Negative) which is being taken in stride.

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