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ECB Terminal Pricing Falls 7+bp Following MNI Sources Piece

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ECB terminal hike pricing has fallen sharply following MNI's ECB sources piece, "ECB Doves Eye Smaller Hikes As Inflation Falls".

  • Roughly 141bp of cumulative hikes are now priced by the July 2023 meeting, vs 148bp a half hour ago.
  • Feb hike pricing is basically unchanged at 48bp, but cumulative pricing through the 2nd meeting in March briefly dropped below 88bp, down 4.5bp (though has bounced to 89.5bp).

Jul'23 OIS Implied Cumulative ECB Hikes (ppt)Source: BBG

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ECB terminal hike pricing has fallen sharply following MNI's ECB sources piece, "ECB Doves Eye Smaller Hikes As Inflation Falls".

  • Roughly 141bp of cumulative hikes are now priced by the July 2023 meeting, vs 148bp a half hour ago.
  • Feb hike pricing is basically unchanged at 48bp, but cumulative pricing through the 2nd meeting in March briefly dropped below 88bp, down 4.5bp (though has bounced to 89.5bp).

Jul'23 OIS Implied Cumulative ECB Hikes (ppt)Source: BBG