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ECB Terminal Rate Expectations Slip, Cut Pricing Continues To Rise

ECB

Terminal ECB rate pricing has slipped 3-4bp vs Tuesday's close, though had fallen as much as 5-6bp intraday following comments by ECB's Holzmann which were seen as leaning dovish vs his hawkish reputation.

  • Peak rates are currently seen being reached in July after 147bp of hikes, implying depo rates a little under 3.50% (had closed just above 3.50% yest).
  • Meanwhile, rate cut expectations beyond the peak continue to mount: the Sep23- Dec24 euribor futures spread now implying roughly 86bp of cuts from the peak to end-2024 (see chart).
  • We came into 2023 with 60bp of cuts implied over that period.

Source: BBG, MNI

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