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Economic Resilience Unlikely Sustained Much Longer - Conference Board

US DATA
  • The Conference Board’s leading index fell by more than expected in September, declining -0.7% M/M (cons -0.4%) after a downward revised -0.5% (initial -0.4%).
  • It is however only its largest decline since May.
  • From the press release: “In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance.”
  • “Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead.”
  • “So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.”

Source: Conference Board

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