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EUROZONE DATA: Economic Sentiment Slips, Downside Risk To Growth

EUROZONE DATA
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  • Eurozone economic sentiment softened more than expected in December to 93.7 (cons 95.6) after a marginally downward revised 95.6 (initial 95.8).
  • It’s a notable miss and decline just a month after the US presidential election, pushing through late 2023 lows for its lowest since late 2020.
  • Historically, this level would suggest downside risk to Eurozone real GDP growth of 0.9% Y/Y back in Q3 (which was helped by a solid 0.4% Q/Q non-annualised in Q3) – see chart.
  • The decline goes against the latest tick higher in the S&P Global Eurozone composite PMI for December, although at 49.6 it too remained in mild contractionary territory. 
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  • Eurozone economic sentiment softened more than expected in December to 93.7 (cons 95.6) after a marginally downward revised 95.6 (initial 95.8).
  • It’s a notable miss and decline just a month after the US presidential election, pushing through late 2023 lows for its lowest since late 2020.
  • Historically, this level would suggest downside risk to Eurozone real GDP growth of 0.9% Y/Y back in Q3 (which was helped by a solid 0.4% Q/Q non-annualised in Q3) – see chart.
  • The decline goes against the latest tick higher in the S&P Global Eurozone composite PMI for December, although at 49.6 it too remained in mild contractionary territory. 
image