EGB supply for W/C Apr 5, 2021

Q2 issuance will kick off next week with Austria, Germany, Spain and France all due to hold auctions. There is also a good chance that we see at least one EGB syndication next week with Ireland, Portugal and Slovakia among the leading candidates. We estimate E26.0bln of gross nominal issuance next week, over double the E12.6bln issued this week. However, with a large Bobl redemption due, net nominal flows are likely to be similar to this week.

• Austria will kick off issuance for the week on Tuesday with E1.495bln of 10/30-year RAGBs on offer. Namely the 0% Feb-31 RAGB and the 0.75% Mar-51 RAGB.
• Germany will then come to the market on Wednesday with E4bln of the 0% Apr-26 Bobl on offer.
• On Thursday, Spain looks to sell the 5-year 0% Jan-26 Bono, 7-year 0% Jan-28 Bono, off-the-run 23-year 5.15% Oct-44 Obli and the previously 15-year 0.70% Nov-33 Obli-Ei. Issuance targets will be announced next week.
• France will conclude issuance for the week on Thursday by selling LT OATs. Details will be announced tomorrow.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: E21.9bln of redemptions are due next week, with the majority (E21bln) from a Bobl due to mature 9 April, E925mln of a Slovenian bond originally issued as a 7-year is also due to mature. Coupons next week total E0.7bln. With expected issuance of E26.0bln, net nominal flows are expected to be E3.3bln, in line with the E3.3bln seen this week.

For more details see the MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix here.