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EGB Supply For W/C Feb 14, 2021

EUROZONE ISSUANCE
MNI (London)

Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain and France are all scheduled to sell bonds this week. We look for E35.9bln of gross nominal issuance from announced operations, up from E25.4bln last week.

  • Belgium is likely to kick off issuance this morning after issuing a mandate yesterday to launch its new 30-year June-53 OLO via syndication. We estimate E4.0-5.0bln will be issued.
  • Also this morning, the Netherlands will launch the new 10-year 0.50% Jul-32 DSL via DDA for E4-6bln. Preliminary initial spread guidance is 0% Feb-32 Bund + 24-28 bps.
  • Germany will also come to the market today with E4.0bln of the 0% Apr-27 Bobl on offer.
  • Germany will return to the market tomorrow to sell a further E4.0bln of the 0% Feb-32 10-year Bund.
  • On Thursday, Spain will look to sell E4.0-5.0bln of the on-the-run 5-year Bono and 10-year Obli; the 0% Jan-27 Bono and the 0.70% Apr-32 Obli.
  • Also Thursday, France will sell 3/5/7-year OATs; the 0% Feb-25, 0% Feb-27 and 0.75% May-28 OATs.
  • France will then look to reopen a further E1.0-1.5bln of linkers. These will be the 0.10% Jul-31 OATei and the 0.10% Mar-32 and 0.10% Mar-36 OATis.
  • In addition to above, we expect the ESM to hold a syndication as early as today after issuing an RFP last week. We also look for Slovenia to hold a syndication this week after it announced its intention last week following a buyback.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees no redemptions and coupons of E3.0bln. With estimated gross nominal issuance of E35.9bln, net flows for the week are estimated at positive E32.9bln (from E25.4bln last week).

For a calendar of all announced EGB/EU/ESM/EFSF auctions see the MNI EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar here.

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