EGB supply for W/C Mar 29, 2021

It has been a busy quarter for Eurozone issuance so far with E411.1bln nominal sold to date of EGBs, EU and EFSF/ESM (E424.0bln in cash terms). However, it's a relatively subdued end to the quarter issuance with only Italy and Germany scheduled to come to the market. We estimate E11.0bln of gross nominal issuance, down from E27.8bln last week and E41.5bln the prior week.

• Italy kicked off issuance for the week yesterday selling E4.0bln of the 0% Apr-26 BTP, E3.0bln of the 0.60% Aug-31 BTP and E1.5bln of the 0.50% Apr-26 CCTeu.
• Germany will come to the market this morning with E2.5bln of the 15-year 0% May-36 Bund on offer. The auction will be watched closely after the offering on 3 March was technically uncovered.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: There is just one redemption this week, E4.0bln of an EFSF bond which was issued in February 2017. There are E5.2bln of coupon payments due, of which E4.2bln are from Belgium and E0.6bln are Italian. With nominal gross issuance of E11.0bln for the week, we look for net nominal flows of E1.8bln (down from 22.6bln last week).

For a longer term outlook see the MNI EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar here.