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EGB Supply For W/C Sept 12, 2022


Belgium, Germany, Portugal, France and Spain all still look to issue this week while the EU, Italy and Germany have already come to the market. E25.0bln has been raised so far and we look for a further E23.1bln. This equates to estimated gross nominal issuance of E48.1bln, up from last week’s E14.8bln.

  • Belgium announced a mandate yesterday for its new Green OLO with a maturity of 22 April 2039. We expect a syndicated transaction today and look for transaction size of up to E5bln.
  • Germany will return to the market this morning to sell E1bln of the 2.50% Jul-44 Bund (ISIN: DE0001135481).
  • Also today, Portugal will look to sell a combined E1.00-1.25bln of 4/10-year OTs: the 2.875% Jul-26 OT (ISIN: PTOTETOE0012) alongside the 1.65% Jul-32 OT (ISIN: PTOTEYOE0031).
  • Tomorrow, Spain will look to sell the 2.15% Oct-25 Obli (ISIN: ES00000127G9), the 0% Jan-27 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012J15) and the 0.50% Apr-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012F76). The auction size will be announced on Monday.
  • France will then look to sell E9-10bln of MT OATs. On offer will be the 0% Feb-27 OAT (ISIN: FR0014003513), the 0.75% Feb-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400AIN5) and the 0% Nov-29 OAT (ISIN: FR0013451507).
  • France will conclude issuance for the week with E0.75-1.25bln of linkers on offer including the 0.10% Mar-25 OATi (ISIN: FR0012558310), the 0.10% Jul-38 Green OATei (ISIN: FR001400AQH0) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181).
  • Recap: The EU has held a 5/30-year dual-tranche syndication for E12bln, Italy has sold 3/7/24-year BTPs for E7.5bln and Germany has sold E5.5bln Schatz (E4.291bln allotted). For more on these operations see the PDF here:
  • EZ220914.pdf

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: This week will see redemptions of E36.5bln most notably from Italy, Finland and Germany – E16.3bln of a formerly 7-year BTP, E15.0bln of German Schatz and E5.2bln of a former 10-year RFGB. There will also be E3.0bln of coupon payments due, of which E2.7bln are Italian and E0.3bln Irish. With estimated gross issuance of E39.6bln, MNI estimates net nominal issuance of close to flat this week, up from last week’s negative E10.3bln.

For a calendar of all announced EGB/EU/ESM/EFSF auctions see the MNI EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar here.

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