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EGB Supply - W/C February 13, 2023 (1/2)


Italy, Germany, Spain and France will all hold auctions this week. The EU will hold a syndication on Tuesday and we pencil in a syndication from Italy (and possibly Belgium). If we were to see all of these deals we could see gross issuance as high as E46.3bln, with scheduled auctions making up E29.3bln. Either way, we would look for gross nominal issuance of more than last week’s E18.5bln.

  • The EU will hold a dual-tranche syndication on Tuesday, tapping the 1.625% Dec-29 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K7MW2) and the 3.375% Nov-42 EU-bond (ISIN: EU000A3K4DV0).
  • We had been expecting a Belgian syndication this week, however, there was no announcement on Monday and no auction details were announced regarding next week either. A syndication this week remains a possibility.
  • We pencil in an Italian syndication this week. We think that the probability of this has increased following the announcement that the longest maturity BTP on offer at Tuesday’s auction is the 15-year BTP. We would expect an Italian syndication to take place potentially on Wednesday or even Friday next week.
  • In terms of auctions, Italy will kick off the week with on-the-run 3/7/15-year BTPs on offer: E3.0-3.5bln of the 3.50% Jan-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005514473), E3.0-3.5bln of the 3.85% Dec-29 BTP (ISIN: IT0005519787) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.25% Mar-38 BTP (ISIN: IT0005496770).

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