EGB Supply - W/C February 20, 2023

Spain, Germany, Italy and potentially Slovenia are still all due to sell bonds this week while the ESM and Slovakia came to the market Monday. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E32.5bln this week, significantly lower than last week’s E51.9bln.

• Spain announced a mandate for a new 15-year Obli. The 15-year maturity and timing was in line with our expectations and we pencil in a E5-7bln transaction size on Tuesday.
• Also Tuesday, Germany will come to the market with E5bln of the 2.20% Apr-28 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25000) on offer.
• Slovenia announced a cash tender offer to buyback Mar-23 (ISIN SI0002103974) and Sep-24 (ISIN SI0002102984) bonds with the view to holding a syndication this week depending on the takeup. Results of the buyback will be announced on Tuesday with a syndication likely on Wednesday or Thursday.
• On Wednesday, Italy will hold a BTP-ST / BTPei auction. On offer will be E3.25-3.75bln of the new 3.40% Mar-25 BTP Short Term. E1-1.5bln of the 0.10% May-33 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005482994) will also be on offer.
• Also Wednesday, Germany will look to reopen the 10-year 2.30% Feb-33 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2Z007) for E5bln.
• Italy will return to the market on Friday with 5/10-year BTPs on offer alongside a CCTeu. we look for the 5-year 3.40% Apr-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005521981) to be reopened alongside the 10-year 4.40% May-33 BTP (ISIN: IT0005518128) and the Oct-30 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005491250). Details will be announced on Tuesday.

EZ230221.pdf