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EGB Supply W/C Jan 16, 2022 (1/2)


Slovakia, Germany, Finland, Spain and France are all due to hold auctions this week while we also pencil in a Greek syndication. We look for gross nominal issuance at first round operations of E30.5bln for these deals, down from E51.5bln last week.

  • This week should be a little quieter for syndications than last. We see a good chance of a Greek syndication. We do not have a strong conviction on what maturity will be on offer but think it would be unlikely to see a new 10-year GGB with a maturity in 2033 given that there is already over E12bln of debt servicing costs in that year (and the PDMA at present is keeping debt servicing costs below E13bln per year). in contrast there is plenty of scope to reopen the 1.75% Jun-32 GGB that was launched in June 2022 with just E3.7bln outstanding and only around E9bln of debt servicing costs due in 2032 at present. MNI also thinks there is a chance that a new 2034 bond is launched in 2023 (although the launch of this could be delayed to January 2024).
  • In terms of auctions, Slovakia will kick off this morning with the 4-year 0.125% Jun-27 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000017380), the 4.00% 10-year Oct-32 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000021986), the 15-year 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958) and the 25-year 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400) all on offer.
  • Tomorrow, Germany will look to launch the new Apr-28 Bobl (ISIN: DE000BU25000) via auction for E5bln. The coupon will be confirmed on Monday but is expected to be at least 2%.
  • Also tomorrow, Finland will look to sell up to E750mln of each of the 5-year 1.375% Apr-27 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000527551) and the 10-year 1.50% Sep-32 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000523238).

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