EGB Supply - W/C Mar 6, 2023

The EU, Italy, Austria, Germany, Portugal and Ireland all look to issue next week. We pencil in gross nominal issuance of E16.8bln next week (excluding retail funds from the BTP Italia), down from this week’s E33.1bln.

• The EU will look to hold a syndication next week, with the transaction likely to take place on Tuesday.
• Italy will be issuing a new 5y Mar-28 BTP Italia. The guaranteed minimum annual real coupon has been set at 2.00% with retail investors who hold to maturity to also receive a bonus of 0.8%. The first phase of the placement will take place Mon-Wed for retail investors with an ISIN IT0005532715. The second phase for institutional investors will be open from 10:00CET to 12:00CET on Thursday, with a separate ISIN.
• On Tuesday, Austria will look to sell a combined E1.495bln of the on-the-run 10/30-year RAGBs: the 2.90% Feb-33 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A324S8) and the 0.75% Mar-51 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A2EJ08).
• Also Tuesday, Germany will look to sell E500mln of the 0.10% Apr-33 ILB (ISIN: DE0001030583).
• On Wednesday, Germany will return to the market to sell E4bln of the 2.10% Nov-29 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102622).
• Also Wednesday, Portugal will look to sell a combined E0.75-1.00bln of the on-the-run 10-year 1.65% Jul-32 OT (ISIN: PTOTEYOE0031) and the off-the-run 0.90% Oct-35 OT (ISIN: PTOTENOE0034).
• Ireland will look to round off Eurozone issuance for the week on Thursday with its first auction of 2023. Details will be announced Monday.

NET NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees a E16.0bln redemption of a German Schatz with coupon payments of just E0.1bln. With estimated gross nominal issuance of E16.8bln next week, we look for net flows of positive E0.6bln in the week ahead, compared to this week’s negative E4.6bln.

For more see the PDF here.