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EGBS: Biased Weaker With Headline Flow Light

EGBS
BulletFixed Income Bullets

Core/semi-core EGBs have traded in tight ranges this morning, currently trading weaker vs Friday’s close.

  • Bunds are -15 ticks at 130.67, with volumes light due to the observance of the Whit Monday public holiday across many Eurozone countries. OAT and BTP futures trade similarly.
  • Weekend news that Iran’s President had died in a helicopter crash has not generated any meaningful geopolitical risk premium, with no evidence of external involvement at this stage.
  • Comments from BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent have not generated any meaningful spillovers into EGBs.
  • German and French cash yields are little changed, while 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are biased slightly tighter.
  • Primary focus this week will be the ECB’s Q1 indicator of negotiated pay growth and the May flash PMIs, both due on Thursday.
  • Sell-side estimates we have seen suggest that Eurozone Q1 negotiated pay growth is set to remain above 4.0% Y/Y, although a deceleration from the 4.5% seen in Q423 is still likely.
     
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Core/semi-core EGBs have traded in tight ranges this morning, currently trading weaker vs Friday’s close.

  • Bunds are -15 ticks at 130.67, with volumes light due to the observance of the Whit Monday public holiday across many Eurozone countries. OAT and BTP futures trade similarly.
  • Weekend news that Iran’s President had died in a helicopter crash has not generated any meaningful geopolitical risk premium, with no evidence of external involvement at this stage.
  • Comments from BoE Deputy Governor Broadbent have not generated any meaningful spillovers into EGBs.
  • German and French cash yields are little changed, while 10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds are biased slightly tighter.
  • Primary focus this week will be the ECB’s Q1 indicator of negotiated pay growth and the May flash PMIs, both due on Thursday.
  • Sell-side estimates we have seen suggest that Eurozone Q1 negotiated pay growth is set to remain above 4.0% Y/Y, although a deceleration from the 4.5% seen in Q423 is still likely.