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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Italy Pol Risk Flares Up Anew

BONDS

Friday morning saw Bunds and Gilts strengthen with BTP spreads sharply wider, though the moves moderated slightly in the afternoon.

  • Italian political risk flared up again, with the tone set on the open by a report by Corriere Della Sera that PM Conte may opt for early elections if he can't form a majority gov't.
  • Bunds strengthened and BTP spreads hit widest levels since November.
  • The Eurozone manufacturing and services flash PMI prints were a touch better than expected, with Germany largely in line, and France disappointing. The UK saw a weak PMI svcs print, but more positively, data showed that the R rate has fallen to 0.8-1.0 (i.e. no longer exponential).
  • Next week highlighted by supply: E17+bn in auction supply plus EU SURE syndication (we estimate E14bn of issuance).
Closing Levels/10-Yr Periphery Spreads to Bunds:
  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 0.7bps at -0.707%, 5-Yr is down 1.7bps at -0.716%, 10-Yr is down 1.6bps at -0.512%, and 30-Yr is down 1.9bps at -0.097%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.8bps at -0.125%, 5-Yr is down 1.8bps at -0.035%, 10-Yr is down 2.3bps at 0.308%, and 30-Yr is down 2.1bps at 0.892%.
  • Italian BTP spread up 8.1bps at 126.3bps / Spanish spread up 1.3bps at 63.5bps
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