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EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Peripheries Outperform As PMIs Impress

BONDS

European yields opened the week mixed, with limited directional conviction Monday as continued strength in survey data was weighed ahead of next week's ECB decision.

  • Periphery EGBs outperformed (BTP / GGB spreads down about 4bp), while Germany underperformed the UK. The UK curve bull flattened, with 2s10s closing at the most inverted since September; the German curve mildly bear steepened out to 10Y, with Buxl outperforming.
  • Futures volume was largely rolls focused ahead of Thursday's 1st notice.
  • Italian and Spanish Service/Composite PMIs for November surprised solidly to the upside, though the overall Eurozone final reading was revised slightly down from flash.
  • ECB's Makhlouf said he favoured a 50bp hike next week, echoing comments by Villeroy over the weekend.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr Periphery EGB Spreads To Germany

  • Germany: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.1bps at 2.12%, 5-Yr is up 1.9bps at 1.889%, 10-Yr is up 2.4bps at 1.88%, and 30-Yr is down 1.1bps at 1.679%.
  • UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.4bps at 3.329%, 5-Yr is down 3.8bps at 3.245%, 10-Yr is down 5bps at 3.104%, and 30-Yr is down 4.9bps at 3.447%.
  • Italian BTP spread down 3.8bps at 187.3bps / Greek down 4.2bps at 200.4bps

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