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EIA Forecast US Gasoline and Diesel Price Decline in 2023/2024

OIL PRODUCTS

EIA forecast gasoline and diesel prices to generally decline as wholesale refining margins and crude oil prices fall according to the latest STEO report.

  • The December 2022 US fuel retail prices were the lowest since the beginning of Russia/Ukraine war at 3.21$/gal for regular gasoline and 4.71$/gal for diesel.
  • They forecast gasoline to remain close to current levels in 2023 at 3.30$/gal and 3.10$/bbl in 2024 but falling below 3$/gal by the end of that year.
  • Diesel prices to remain higher than gasoline supported by disruption due to EU sanction on Russian products
  • US refinery runs and gasoline and diesel production are expected to increase in 2023 and 2024 compared to 2022.
  • Global refinery capacity is expected to increase and will contribute to the narrowing of US refining margins in 2023 and 2024.


Source: EIA

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