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EIA Oil Inventory Preview:


The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 EDT (15:30 BST) today

  • Crude inventories are expecting a draw of -1.2mbbls for the week ending 17th August according to a Bloomberg survey following on from a -7mbbls draw last week. US crude exports are likely to stay strong after a record 5mbpd last week due to overseas demand from European refiners looking for alternatives to Russian supplies. US crude production should continue to slowly grow after a slight dip in Gulf of Mexico output last week owing to a temporary pipeline outage.
  • The API data released last night showed a draw in crude of -5.63mbbls, a build at Cushing of +0.68mbbls, a build in distillates of +1.05mbbl and a build in gasoline of +0.27mbbl.
  • Both gasoline and diesel implied demand recovered loses from earlier in July and August. Gasoline demand reached its highest this year as a fall in US retail pump prices has helped support consumption. The market remains concerned for demand, especially for gasoline, with the crack spread this week losing the gains made earlier in the month.
  • A survey suggests gasoline inventories are expected to draw by -1.4mbbls and distillates to build by +0.75mbbls.
  • Tight supply is supporting diesel prices with ongoing limited refining capacity and stocks still well below normal. US distillate stocks were last week reported as 23% below the 5-year average. Refining margins have kept high runs rates but have done little to build up distillate stocks. Margins had picked up last week and should support a strong run rate although spreads have pulled back this week so we could see a fall in next week’s data. The expected restart of the PBF crude unit may also help run rates.

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