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EIA Oil Stocks Preview: Crude Draw and Product Builds Expected

OIL
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EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to draw by 1.91mbbls for the week ending May 31, according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude stocks drew last week with an increase in refinery runs offsetting a decline in exports. Crude production was once again unchanged at 13.1mbpd. Cushing inventories fell by the most since Jan but are still holding near the yearly highs.
  • Refinery utilisation increased more than expected by 2.6% last week to the highest since August 2023. U.S. refiners are expected to have about 60kbpd of capacity offline in the week ended June 7, 44kbpd less than the week prior according to IRR Energy. U.S. crude oil refiners aim to operate 90% of their combined processing capacity for the remainder of Q2 after completing planned overhauls, Reuters said. Overall US refinery utilisation is expected to remain relatively unchanged this week, rising by just 0.05% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey.
  • Total US gasoline stocks are expected to build by 1.09mbbl and distillates to build by 1.58mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks last week showed a build with an increase in imports more than offsetting higher exports. Implied demand fell on the week but the four week average implied demand continue to recover for the fourth week and above 9mbpd for the first time since last summer. OPIS suggests a low demand figure for last week at “well under 9-million b/d”. US gasoline demand fell 4.4% last week from the prior week, modelled at 8.633mbpd, and was 3.3% lower than the four-week average according to GasBuddy data.
  • Distillates stocks also built last week driven by a drop in exports while weekly implied demand edged lower. Four-week implied demand extended the recent recovery from a low on April 19 but remains below all recent years except for 2020.
  • The API data released last night showed a crude build of 4.1mbbl with a build of 1.0mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a build of 4.0mbbl and distillates stocks a draw of 2.0mbbl.
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EIA Oil Inventory Preview: The EIA weekly petroleum status report will be released at 10:30 ET (15:30 BST) today.

  • Crude inventories are expected to draw by 1.91mbbls for the week ending May 31, according to a Bloomberg survey. Crude stocks drew last week with an increase in refinery runs offsetting a decline in exports. Crude production was once again unchanged at 13.1mbpd. Cushing inventories fell by the most since Jan but are still holding near the yearly highs.
  • Refinery utilisation increased more than expected by 2.6% last week to the highest since August 2023. U.S. refiners are expected to have about 60kbpd of capacity offline in the week ended June 7, 44kbpd less than the week prior according to IRR Energy. U.S. crude oil refiners aim to operate 90% of their combined processing capacity for the remainder of Q2 after completing planned overhauls, Reuters said. Overall US refinery utilisation is expected to remain relatively unchanged this week, rising by just 0.05% w/w according to a Bloomberg survey.
  • Total US gasoline stocks are expected to build by 1.09mbbl and distillates to build by 1.58mbbl, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gasoline stocks last week showed a build with an increase in imports more than offsetting higher exports. Implied demand fell on the week but the four week average implied demand continue to recover for the fourth week and above 9mbpd for the first time since last summer. OPIS suggests a low demand figure for last week at “well under 9-million b/d”. US gasoline demand fell 4.4% last week from the prior week, modelled at 8.633mbpd, and was 3.3% lower than the four-week average according to GasBuddy data.
  • Distillates stocks also built last week driven by a drop in exports while weekly implied demand edged lower. Four-week implied demand extended the recent recovery from a low on April 19 but remains below all recent years except for 2020.
  • The API data released last night showed a crude build of 4.1mbbl with a build of 1.0mbbl at Cushing. Gasoline inventories showed a build of 4.0mbbl and distillates stocks a draw of 2.0mbbl.