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Free AccessEIA Revise Brent Forecast Lower but with Upward From Current Level
EIA expect some upward pressure on crude oil prices in the coming months due to a seasonal rise in oil consumption and drop in OPEC production according to the EIA Short Term Energy Report release yesterday.
- They expect a balanced oil market between Q3 2023 and Q1 2024 to push the Brent price back to between 75$/bbl and 80$/bbl. The Brent forecast for 2024 has been lowered 7$/bbl to 74$/bbl.
- Ongoing considerations about weakening global economic conditions, perceived risk around the global banking sector, and persistent inflation have recently outweighed the 1.2mb/d OPEC production cut announcement.
- Global liquids fuel consumption is forecast at 100.99 mb/d this year and 102.71mb/d in 2024.
- World liquids output is forecast at 101.34mb/d in this year, and 103.02mb/d in 2024.
- US Crude output has been revised lower to increase 5.1% in 2023 to 12.53mb/d and by 1.3% to a record high of 2.69mb/d in 2024 compared to 12.75mb/d projected in April. US output is expected to grow annually in 2024 at an average rate of 160kb/d compared to the previous forecast of 210kb/d.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.