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Free AccessElection Race Closer Than Polls Suggested, But Lula Still Favourite
Despite a first-round election performance from incumbent right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro that exceeded expectations, leftist challenger Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains the favourite to emerge as the winner in the 30 October second-round run-off vote.
- Lula fell just short of the 50%+1 required to win outright in the 2 October first round, garnering 48.4% of the vote. Bolsonaro came in second with 43.2% (the highest opinion polling score Bolsonaro achieved in the month before the vote was 41%).
- Political betting markets have shown little movement since the announcement of the results, with Lula assigned a 72.5% implied probability of winning the election according to data from Smarkets. A small jump in Bolsonaro's numbers as the result came in has been swiftly pared back (see chart below).
- The next month is likely to see political tensions in Latin America's largest economy remain elevated as the bitter political rivals strive to boost their support levels.
- Close attention will be paid to Bolsonaro's rhetoric on the reliability of the election, with some seeing the incumbent as laying the groundwork for a challenge to the 2nd round result should he be defeated.
Source: Smarkets
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.