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The market is very much expecting Bolsonaro's two backed candidates, Lira and Pacheco, to prevail. Any other outcome would constitute a surprise.


Importantly, late on Sunday, Maia's own Democrats party decided to free its members to vote according to their own will, according to a statement of the party's leadership. Because of this, Maia has just announced he is leaving the party after the election, according to CNN.


Lira got the upper hand in the race after he promised government jobs, influential roles in the house command and extra budgets for legislators. On January 11th he also announced, if elected, he would secure a constitutional amendment with mechanisms to cut expenses if needed to comply with the spending ceiling.


With the winners of both roles effectively controlling the legislative agenda, this would be an important first step for Bolsonaro in his bid to re-establish himself and reverse the recent trend of his diminishing approval ratings.

MNI London Bureau | +44 020 3983 7893 | jack.lewis@marketnews.com