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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CONSUMER STAPLES
It's +55bps/-0.7pts this morning and interestingly led by the short-end.
- S&P downgrade late yesterday here.
- We don't expect S&P to comment again till FY24 earnings giving investors a (relatively) open-road for carry now; duration adj. protection from now to FY24 earnings below.
- We continue to emphasise caution and recommend investors have a firm view on how Auchan will navigate the competitive French market/turnaround margins. Volatility on these lines are gut wrenching historically - and as we saw with new April 28s - that priced with a 55bp NIC - a drift wider into earnings is not uncommon. We struggle to see why investors would not be equally nervous heading into FY24 results.
- As we said the 25s should not have trouble being paid down using either the RE base or the €1.5b cash on hand it - BUT they will still need to sit through FY24 results (April line).
- Co only seems to be guiding to a partial recovery in the 2H. We will be keeping an eye on monthly market share data as well as what public competitors Carrefour and Ahold (ADNA) report (in quarterly's) on the state of price/margin competitiveness in Europe.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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