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- Elvan speech comes after Erdogan shook markets with dovish rate cut comments
- Completely undermining CBRT's hard fought credibility over the last two months and reminding markets that his political influence will inevitable come back into the fray.
- This should slow the progress on de-dollarisation and anchoring inflation expectations on a hawkish rates bias.
- This Week's CBRT will be a key determinant of its autonomy.
- Most still expecting a hold with inflation holding below the 17% 1w repo at 14.60%.
- A surprise cut at this meeting would completely undermine the positive progress made by Agbal, but at this early stage is not the base case.