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Empire Mfg Slides As It Maintains Volatile Form

US DATA
  • The NY Fed Empire State manufacturing survey was far weaker than expected in January, falling from -11.2 to -32.9 (cons -8.6).
  • The impact was however limited by it being a volatile series (the downside surprise of 24pts was only the fourth largest miss since the start of 2022) whilst the six-months ahead measure increased 1.7pts to +8, the highest since September and before that June.
  • The average of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys has pointed to sizeable downside risk to the ISM mfg readings since last summer, although the ISM has started to close that gap, falling into contraction territory with 49 in Nov and then 48.4 in Dec.
  • Philly Fed (Jan 19) plus S&P Global and Richmond Fed (both Jan 24) provide the next steers for manufacturing health, although the much more heavily weighted service sector remains in focus after catching up with manufacturing weakness when ISM services surprisingly slumped 7pts to 49.6 in Dec.

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