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Employment Insurance Claimants Supports Uptrend In U/E Rate

CANADA DATA
  • The number of those receiving regular Employment Insurance benefits was little changed in January, rising only a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M, but the Y/Y still increased from 15.4% to 18.0% Y/Y.
  • Whilst not a forward-looking indicator for unemployment, the positive Y/Y rate continues to act as confirmation of the upward trend seen in the u/e rate – see chart.
  • The benefits data still compare favorably against pre-pandemic levels though. The seasonally adjusted 468.3k of EI benefit claimants is 2.4% higher than late 2019, during which time the working age population has increased by 2.2mn or more than 7%.
  • Of the largest provinces, Ontario leads with regular benefits recipients rising 30% Y/Y, followed by Alberta (28% Y/Y), British Columbia (25% Y/Y) and Quebec (16% Y/Y).

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