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Employment Preview: Temporary Omicron Hit Expected

CANADA
  • Canadian employment (0830ET) is expected to have declined -110k in Jan according to the Bloomberg median consensus, or -140k for the median of the big six local banks.
  • Unlike the US where we get one more NFP report before the FOMC on March 16, this is the one and only report between the BOC’s hawkish hold last week and its next meeting on March 2, where 25bp liftoff is fully priced.
  • This Omicron-linked drop follows an upward revised +78.6k in Dec which had been driven by a large rise in full-time jobs.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to have increased 0.3pps to 6.3% along with a 0.2pp dip in the participation rate.
  • Canada saw tighter Omicron restrictions than the US but acute staff shortages just beforehand and the labor force being more used to such shocks should have limited layoffs in this latest wave.
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