Employment Report Coming Up - 0830ET

Consensus sees Canadian employment rising 20k in Sept after a cumulative -114k decline in the past three months, with both the u/e and participation rates holding at 5.4% and 64.8% respectively as the u/e holds off the record low of 4.9% in June-July. A few sellside views:

• CIBC: Looking for +35k and u/e rate at 5.2% after last month’s job hit was focused in a suspect late-summer plunge in education. See the u/e rate rising to 6% by July as higher interest rates weigh on employment growth.
• RBC: Looking for a welcome +15k uptick but the bump isn’t likely to last as monetary tightening continues, expecting a higher u/e rate for the rest of this year and the economy tipping into recession in 1H23.
• Scotia: Looking for +30k after significant distortions make it difficult to treat recent losses quite so literally, concentrated in education and trade. A likely higher NAIRU for Canada sees more rapid recent wage gains in Canada (10% m/m SA 3moMA) than in the US (~5%), pointing toward more cost-push wage-price spiral effect concerns north of the border.